Wall Street Journal
UAL Issues Second Profit Warning
As Airline Heads Convene for Talks
August 18, 2000
Susan Carey
Staff Reporter, Wall Street Journal
CHICAGO -- In another acknowledgment that it is in the throes of
operational turmoil, UAL Corp. issued a second profit warning about its
third-quarter results.
The United Airlines parent expects third-quarter profit to be lower than
the range of $2.60 to $3.20 a fully distributed share, guidance it gave
in mid-July to warn investors down from rosier projections.
But Jim Goodwin, chairman and chief executive, declined Thursday to
be more specific, saying uncertainties surrounding labor relations,
crew-related issues and weather "preclude us from confidently projecting
results at this point for the quarter or the full year."
The move, though widely expected on Wall Street, sent UAL shares down $1,
or 2%, to $48.50. The shares' 52-week low is $45.75.
Separately, indicating that some of United's problems are industrywide,
Transportation Secretary Rodney Slater has called the chiefs of all the
big airlines, along with airport executives and airline union leaders, to
a meeting in Washington on Monday to discuss the delays and cancellations
that have made this summer a misery for air travelers. Mr. Slater last
week came to Chicago and had separate meetings with Mr. Goodwin and the
ALPA chief in a bid to persuade them to resolve their dispute.
For UAL, analysts began downgrading earnings estimates last week,
citing the high numbers of flight cancellations -- and resulting revenue
shortfall -- at the world's largest airline. United has blamed some of
its 10,500 pilots for refusing to fly overtime and for making unnecessary
sick calls, accusations the pilots union denies. The two sides are in
contract negotiations.
After Thursday's profit warning, several analysts revised their estimates.
PaineWebber Inc.'s Sam Buttrick, who last week lowered his forecast to
$2.60 a share from $3.35, Thursday came down to $1.90 a share. Julius
Maldutis of CIBC World Markets chopped his estimate to $1.40 a share
from $2.70. He was at $3.25 a share last week. Salomon Smith Barney's
Brian Harris, who had been at $2.95 a share since July, lopped the figure
to $2.10.
In 1999's third quarter, on a fully distributed basis, UAL earned $456
million, or $3.75 a share, on revenue of $4.85 billion. Before Thursday's
profit warning, the consensus estimate for this year's third-quarter
profit by analysts surveyed by First Call/Thomson Financial was $2.75
a fully distributed share.
Mr. Goodwin said booking levels have fallen since early this month,
after a particularly bad patch when United was forced to cancel between
180 and 360 flights a day at the last minute, owing to bad weather,
mechanical problems, air-traffic control delays and a shortage of pilots.
"While our operating performance has improved somewhat, the reduced
booking levels continue and as a result, revenues are not as strong as
we had previously anticipated," Mr. Goodwin said.
In recent days, cancellations have fallen to 100 to 135 a day, still
outlandishly bad by industry standards. But Thursday, hit by thunderstorms
in Chicago, United had scrubbed 230 flights by midafternoon. In the first
two weeks of August, United canceled 10% of its nearly 2,400 daily flights
at the last minute. Of those that operated, only 36% arrived on time.
To mend fences with its most frequent customers, United Thursday as
expected said it will boost the mileage bonuses it awards to three
elite-status groups in its Mileage Plus frequent-flier plan. The extra
miles will be doled out retroactively from May 1 and for the rest of
this year. The company also said it will waive the $75-per-ticket
fee for changing travel dates for customers traveling before Sept.
30 whose outbound flights are delayed or canceled. It also will allow
customers traveling before that date to postpone their trips without
paying that fee.
Contract negotiations with the Air Line Pilots Association continued
Thursday at a hotel in suburban Chicago. Only a few significant economic
issues remain on the table and the union has said it wants a tentative
agreement by Sept. 1.
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